5. Analysis & Diagnosis
- Produce a strong diagnostic hypothesis which includes a logically consistent causal chain that accounts, as much as possible, for the facts that are observed. Such a causal story could be referred to as a syndrome. Check the validity of the diagnostic hypothesis by deriving other symptoms that should be present (in the Operations Realm) if the proposed syndrome is true.
- Record diagnostic alternatives that could replace the selected hypothesis if new evidence would prove it to be false.
- Obtain feedback and approval by stakeholders on a consensus diagnostic hypothesis.
- Record any assumptions that are made in the course of the diagnostic work, or that have been made in scientific works referenced in formulating the diagnostic hypothesis.
- Clarifying the decoupling of the causal chains/problem messes that are to be addressed by different diagnostic hypotheses.
UNDP: the problem analysis plays a crucial role in:
- Developing a clear understanding of not only the surface problems, but also their underlying causes and constraints
- Determining the real size and complexity of the problem and the relationships between different contributing factors
- Determining how the problem affects groups (women, men, marginalized populations) or may be caused by the unequal treatment of different groups in society
- Determining short, medium and long-term interventions that may be necessary for a sustainable solution
- Identifying the partnerships that may be necessary to effectively address the problem
- Assessing the roles that different stakeholders may need to play in solving the problem
- Estimating the resources that may be required to deal with the problem and its causes